What Does the S&P Global Report Reveal?
S&P Global Ratings finds that European banks are rapidly positioning to enter the stablecoin market, driven by regulatory clarity from MiCAR and growing demand for tokenized assets. The report projects that euro-pegged stablecoins could grow from approximately €650 million today to between €25 billion and €1.1 trillion by 2030—representing 0.1% to 4.2% of eurozone banks’ overnight deposits.
“That growth will be driven by tokenized investments and, to a lesser degree, payments using stablecoins.” — Cihan Duran, S&P Global Ratings
What Is Driving European Bank Interest?
Tokenized Investments
The report identifies tokenization of real-world assets as the primary growth driver, potentially reaching €500 billion by 2030. Banks see euro-pegged stablecoins as essential settlement infrastructure for tokenized securities, funds, and other financial instruments.
Corporate and Retail Payments
Increased stablecoin adoption for retail and corporate payments represents the second major catalyst. Stablecoins offer faster settlement, reduced intermediaries, 24/7 availability, and programmable smart contracts that eliminate counterparty risk.
Regulatory Clarity
The EU’s Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCAR), which took full effect on January 1, 2026, provides comprehensive oversight including reserve asset composition requirements, concentration limits across deposit institutions, and own fund and stress-testing requirements.
Which Banks Are Moving?
European Bank Consortium
Eleven European banks from nine countries plan to launch a euro-pegged stablecoin through Qivalis, a Netherlands-based entity, by mid-2026. The consortium provides access to approximately 150 million European clients, creating a powerful distribution network.
Global G-SIBs
Ten global systemically important banks have announced intentions to issue G7 currency-pegged stablecoins on public blockchains, signaling that stablecoin issuance is becoming a core banking activity.
Japanese Megabanks
Three Japanese megabanks have announced yen-pegged stablecoin plans for wholesale corporate transactions, demonstrating that this trend extends beyond Europe.
What Are the Financial Stability Considerations?
The ECB has flagged interconnectedness risks between banks and stablecoin issuers, particularly around potential liquidity pressures during market stress. MiCAR addresses these concerns through:
- Reserve diversification requirements: Deposits capped at 25% for systemically important banks, 15% for large institutions, and 5% for others
- Maturity requirements: 40-60% of reserves held in daily or weekly maturities for significant tokens
- Stress testing: Own fund and stress-testing requirements for issuers
A key structural constraint: eurozone short-term sovereign debt represents only 6% of total marketable securities, compared to 22% for U.S. Treasury bills, potentially limiting reserve asset options.
The Coinbax Perspective
S&P Global’s projection of up to €1.1 trillion in euro-pegged stablecoins by 2030 signals a fundamental shift: European banks aren’t just watching stablecoins—they’re building the infrastructure to issue and manage them. When eleven banks form a consortium to launch a shared stablecoin, the question moves from “if” to “how.”
But issuance is only half the equation. As banks become stablecoin issuers, they’ll need operational infrastructure that satisfies MiCAR’s compliance requirements while delivering the efficiency gains that make stablecoins compelling. Programmable escrow, built-in reversibility, and real-time compliance provide the trust layer that enables banks to offer stablecoin services at scale—turning regulatory requirements into operational capabilities rather than barriers.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why are European banks leading in stablecoin issuance?
MiCAR provides the clearest regulatory framework globally for stablecoin issuance, giving European banks a defined path to compliance. Combined with the consortium approach that pools distribution across 150 million clients, European banks have both regulatory clarity and market scale to move aggressively.
What is the difference between the low and high end of S&P’s projection?
The range of €25 billion to €1.1 trillion reflects uncertainty about adoption speed. The low end assumes stablecoins remain niche settlement tools; the high end assumes broad adoption for tokenized investments and corporate payments, representing 4.2% of eurozone banks’ overnight deposits.
How does MiCAR compare to the GENIUS Act?
Both frameworks establish reserve requirements and issuer oversight for stablecoins. MiCAR is broader in scope, covering all crypto-assets and requiring specific reserve diversification rules. The GENIUS Act focuses specifically on payment stablecoins with emphasis on federal and state regulatory pathways.
What does this mean for U.S. financial institutions?
European banks moving to issue stablecoins creates competitive pressure on U.S. institutions. As euro-pegged stablecoins gain traction for cross-border trade and tokenized asset settlement, U.S. banks will need comparable capabilities to remain competitive in global payment flows.