What Does the BCG “Future Is Onchain” Report Reveal?
Boston Consulting Group and Dfns have published a comprehensive analysis arguing that blockchain infrastructure has reached an inflection point for financial services. The report projects the stablecoin market will grow from $400 billion in 2025 to $3 trillion by 2030—a 53% compound annual growth rate—while tokenized money market funds could reach $600 billion in assets under management.
The core thesis: “Onchain” will become as ubiquitous as “online” is today, fundamentally reshaping how financial institutions operate.
“Onchain will become a new standard. In early 00’s we used to say online, we don’t say that anymore. Everything is online today.” — Christopher Grilhault des Fontaines, Co-CEO & Co-Founder, Dfns
How Much Can Onchain Infrastructure Save?
Cross-Border Payments
- Traditional route: $1,000 sent → $956 received (4.4% in fees, 3-day settlement)
- Onchain route: $1,000 sent → $996 received (<$0.10 in fees, seconds to settle)
- Savings: 90% reduction in transaction costs
Settlement Speed
- Traditional repo settlement: Trade at 10am → Settlement at 9am next day (T+1)
- Tokenized MMF settlement: Trade, affirmation, and settlement within minutes (T+0)
Stablecoin Lending
- Current stablecoin lending-to-supply ratio: 20%
- Traditional bank lending-to-M1 ratio: 129%
- Projected stablecoin loans by 2030: $800 billion
What Are the Four Scenarios for Finance’s Future?
BCG outlines four possible paths for how traditional finance and blockchain-native players will interact:
Scenario 1: The Onchain Bank of the Future
Traditional institutions successfully adopt DLT, becoming hybrid onchain banks while maintaining client relationships. This represents the optimal outcome for existing financial institutions.
Scenario 2: Open-Internet Money
TradFi reacts too slowly; blockchain-native firms capture significant market share and become the new standard. Traditional institutions become marginalized.
Scenario 3: Two-Lane Highway
Both systems grow in parallel with limited integration, serving different customer segments. Traditional and onchain finance coexist but don’t fully converge.
Scenario 4: Marginal Change
Regulatory pushback or black swan events halt progress; blockchain remains peripheral to mainstream finance.
“In the long run, large parts of the financial industry will be onchain – traditional banks and blockchain-natives alike. The real question is which institutions manage the transition, and which ones disappear along the way.” — Kaj Burchardi, Managing Director, Global Blockchain Lead, BCG Platinion
Which Institutions Are Already Moving Onchain?
The report documents production-scale deployments from major financial institutions:
- JPMorgan: Programmable payments via JPM Coin on public blockchain
- Citi: Token Services with 24/7 USD clearing for cross-border payments
- BlackRock: BUIDL tokenized fund on Ethereum
- Franklin Templeton: OnChain U.S. Government Money Fund exceeding $270 million AUM
- DTCC, ABN AMRO, Broadridge, Fidelity: All using Dfns wallet infrastructure
Enterprise adoption is accelerating: 90% of enterprises in major markets report active blockchain initiatives, and 70% plan to modernize core systems within 3 years.
What Infrastructure Do Banks Need?
Digital Asset Operating Platform
- Enterprise orchestration and integrations
- Transaction and data management
- Programmable policy-driven governance
- Confidential computing and technical assurance
- Air-gapped cold signing for regulatory compliance
Wallet-as-a-Service (WaaS)
- Onchain-to-TradFi integration
- Secure custody with MPC/HSM key management
- Identity and access controls
- Configurable governance workflows
- Multi-chain interoperability
“Privacy is the key unlock for institutional adoption. It isn’t just another feature, it’s the foundation for uniting traditional finance and crypto.” — Yuval Rooz, Co-Founder and CEO, Digital Asset
What Unmet Needs Does Onchain Infrastructure Address?
| Need | Problem Today | Onchain Solution |
|---|---|---|
| Speed | Settlement cut-off times delay treasury operations | Real-time, 24/7 settlement |
| Economy | Remittance fees consume 4.4% of transfers | Sub-cent transaction costs |
| Productivity | Fragmented platforms limit yield deployment | Composable liquidity pools |
| Inclusion | IPO costs prohibit mid-sized company access | Tokenized equity at lower cost |
The global equity gap for mid-sized businesses is projected to grow from $16 trillion in 2025 to $24 trillion by 2030—concentrated in developing markets where traditional capital markets are underdeveloped.
The Coinbax Perspective
The BCG/Dfns report validates a critical insight: blockchain infrastructure is ready for institutional deployment, but success requires more than just technical capability. The report emphasizes that “the real barriers are not technical—they are inertia, embedded behaviours, incentives and network effects.”
For banks and credit unions evaluating stablecoin integration, this means the infrastructure question is largely solved. The remaining challenge is trust infrastructure—the governance, compliance, and safety mechanisms that allow regulated institutions to participate confidently in onchain finance.
This is precisely where programmable escrow, built-in reversibility, and real-time compliance become essential. As the report notes, traditional finance brings “capabilities in risk management, compliance, balance sheet management” while blockchain offers “programmability, composability, 24/7 global reach.” Bridging these worlds requires trust infrastructure that preserves the safety standards customers expect while enabling the efficiency gains blockchain delivers.
The $3 trillion stablecoin market projected for 2030 won’t be captured by institutions waiting on the sidelines. The question for financial institutions is whether they’ll build the trust infrastructure to participate—or watch as blockchain-native competitors define the future of payments.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does “onchain” mean in this context?
“Onchain” refers to financial operations conducted on blockchain infrastructure—transactions, settlement, custody, and record-keeping that occur on distributed ledger networks rather than traditional centralized systems.
Why does BCG project 53% annual growth for stablecoins?
The projection reflects regulatory clarity (GENIUS Act, MiCAR), institutional adoption acceleration, and proven efficiency gains. As more financial institutions deploy stablecoin infrastructure, network effects compound growth.
What distinguishes the four scenarios?
The scenarios differ in how quickly and successfully traditional financial institutions adopt blockchain infrastructure. Scenario 1 (successful adaptation) preserves TradFi relevance; Scenario 2 (too slow) leads to disruption by blockchain-native competitors.
What should financial institutions do now?
The report advises institutions to move beyond pilots into production deployment, focusing on infrastructure that enables compliant, scalable onchain operations. Waiting risks being disrupted by more agile competitors.